A study by Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), in partnership with the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC), concluded that Brazilian livestock farming will reduce CO2 emissions in meat production by at least 79.9% if it maintains the current pace of adopting more efficient farming practices and converting new areas to pasture, reaching almost 93% in the most optimistic scenarios.
Released at COP30, held in the city of Belém, Brazil, the survey showed that, even with production growth, net emissions, i.e., emissions minus removals, are likely to fall by 2050: 60.7% in the scenario of continuing current trends; and up to 85.4% in the most optimistic scenario.
“Our goal was to understand the role of Brazilian livestock farming in the climate agenda and identify where the greatest opportunities for mitigation lie,” said Camila Estevam, a researcher at FGV Agro. “The results indicate that the industry is in a position to expand its production and, at the same time, advance on a consistent path of decarbonization, acting as an ally of the climate agenda.”
To calculate the potential for decarbonization, the study analyzed four scenarios. The first simulated the continuation of land use trends and increased productivity. Since 1990, Brazilian livestock farming has increased productivity by 183%, while reducing the area occupied by pastures by 18%, according to ABIEC. If this pace is maintained, emissions per kilogram of meat will be reduced from 80 kilograms of CO2 to 16.1 kilograms – a drop of 79.9%.
The second scenario considers the fulfillment of the government’s goal of zero deforestation by 2030, which would allow for an 86.3% reduction in emissions per kilogram of animal protein produced. The third projection adds the full adoption of the ABC+ Plan (Sectoral Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change and Low Carbon Emissions in Agriculture), focusing on the recovery of degraded pastures and the expansion of integrated systems, such as crops and livestock, in which decarbonization reaches 91.6%.
The fourth scenario, on the other hand, incorporates the previous items and the use of techniques such as feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation and early slaughter as drivers of efficiency. In this scenario, the reduction would reach 92.6%.
“The potential result of a 92.6% reduction in emissions per kilogram of protein produced can be achieved through a combination of already established public targets, the large-scale implementation of cutting-edge technologies, and the expansion of best practices that are already being applied by some of the most relevant Brazilian producers. This confirms the role of livestock farming as an essential pillar for meeting Brazil’s climate goals,” says Guilherme Bastos, coordinator of FGV Agro.
The role of public policy
The most advanced decarbonization scenario depends on the implementation of relevant public policies, which act as a lever and guide for productive action. One of the key issues highlighted by the study is ending illegality and achieving the goal of zero deforestation by 2030, which will require the participation of the productive sector.
For this scenario to materialize, implementation of plans to prevent and combat deforestation will be necessary, as well as public traceability policies such as the National Cattle Identification Plan (PNIB) and the AgroBrasil+Sustentável platform, both from the Ministry of Agriculture, in addition to state initiatives such as the Green Seal, the Pará Livestock Integrity Program, and the initiative of the São Paulo Department of Agriculture.
Secondly, the government must create incentive and financing mechanisms to accelerate the adoption of ABC+ Plan practices and the most advanced technologies, ensuring that it is economically viable for rural producers to invest in the conservation and recovery of degraded pastures.
“Brazilian livestock farming plays a central role in the climate agenda and has enormous potential to contribute to decarbonization, freeing up space in Brazil’s targets under the Paris Agreement,” says Roberto Perosa, president of ABIEC. “This is a reason to be very proud, but it also increases our responsibility even further, as we need to continue to accelerate the path we are already on.”
