Exclusive: Mexican Finance Ministry Sees GDP Growing at 2.5% and Oil at US$58 in 2025

The Ministry of Finance sent its preliminary 2025 economic forecast to Congress, keeping growth in 2024 unchanged between 2.5% and 3.5%

A Mexican flag flies at Constitution Square, known as Zocalo, in Mexico City, Mexico, on Friday Feb. 11, 2022
March 28, 2024 | 04:00 PM

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Mexico City — Mexico’s Ministry of Finance estimates that the country’s economy will grow by 2.5% in 2025, while the price of oil will average US$58 per barrel, according to the 2025 “General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria” document, to which Bloomberg Línea had exclusive access before it was sent to Congress.

The AMLO administration delivered its preliminary forecast to Congress on the morning of Wednesday, March 27. The document will outline the macroeconomic framework during the first year of the country’s new Government, following this year’s presidential elections. By law, this document must be submitted on April 1 of each year, but this time its submission came early.

For 2025, a growth range of between 2% and 3% is expected, with a specific estimate of 2.5% for the start of the next six-year presidential term. The Finance Ministry kept its growth forecast unchanged for the end of 2024 at a range of 2.5% to 3.5%, with a specific projection of 2.6%.

The Ministry also expects an average oil price of US$71 per barrel for 2024 and at US$58 for 2025. Average oil production will be 1.852 million barrels per day for 2024 and is expected to rise to 1.863 million barrels per day next year.

Regarding the exchange rate, the government sees the dollar at MXN$17.8 pesos by year-end, and at MXN$18 per dollar by December of 2025. Inflation is estimated at 3.8% by the end of 2024 and at 3.3% in December 2025, while the average projected interest rate for this year is 10.3% and 8.1% during 2025.