Lula Could Win Brazil’s Presidential Election in a First Round, Poll Shows

Analysts are closely watching how Brazilians will react to the final presidential televised debate slated for Thursday evening

Lula’s advance fell within the poll’s 2 percentage-point margin of error, but surveys widely show the former head of state gaining steam.
By Andrew Rosati
September 26, 2022 | 12:14 PM

Bloomberg — Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva inched closer to an outright win in this weekend’s presidential elections, a new poll found.

Front-runner Lula ticked upward, now claiming 48% of valid votes in the first round from 47% a week ago, according to a survey by FSB Pesquisa released on Monday. Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro was unchanged at 37%.

If a candidate doesn’t take more than 50% of the ballot on Oct. 2 after removing both null and blank votes, the race will go to a runoff on Oct. 30.

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Lula’s advance fell within the poll’s 2 percentage-point margin of error, but surveys widely show the former head of state gaining steam. Only about 2% of voters have yet to pick a candidate, though FSB Pesquisa found some 20 million could switch their preference last-minute.

“The number of voters who are still willing to change their voting decision in this final stretch is enough to change the outlook, which today points to a second round,” Marcelo Tokarski, director of the polling firm, wrote in a statement.

Candidates other than the current and former president hold 14% of total voter preference combined in the first-round, the poll found.

Analysts are closely watching how Brazilians will react to the final presidential televised debate slated for Thursday evening. Both Bolsonaro and Lula have said they will attend.

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The poll, commissioned by investment bank BTG Pactual, interviewed 2,000 Brazilians between Sept. 23 and 25.

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