Mexican Companies’ Q3 Reports Could Hint at First Signs of a Recession

Companies listed on Mexico’s stock exchange have until October 28 to file their third-quarter reports, and which will reveal their financial state of affairs and expectations for the coming months

Third-quarter reporting season is approaching in Mexico, and companies listed on the country’s stock exchange have an October 28 deadline to file their financial statements
October 04, 2022 | 01:15 PM

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Mexico City — Third-quarter reporting season is approaching in Mexico, and companies listed on the country’s stock exchange have an October 28 deadline to file their financial statements, information that will allow investors and analysts to weigh up companies’ expectations for the end of the year.

The July-September financial and operating performance information is the last to be published before the end of 2022, and with the third-quarter reports, brokerages will begin to estimate companies’ stock price targets, as well as expectations for 2023.

Some companies will even begin to give their outlook for 2023, which some analysts anticipate could be marked by recession, at least for the first few months.

“This is where we think we are going to start seeing the economic recession, mainly during the first half of 2023, where the important challenges for companies will come,” Brian Rodriguez, an analyst at Monex, told Bloomberg Línea.

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The key is inflation and the decline in people’s purchasing power, which could affect mainly companies linked to non-essential consumer goods and tourism, according to Rodriguez.

For companies operating in other sectors, the short term is still not so clear.

For Valentín Mendoza, director of analysis at Actinver, there is still not enough evidence that the inflation turning point has finally been reached, while the depth and duration of the economic recession are not yet certain.

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The quarterly reports and conferences will help to clarify the picture somewhat, analysts say.

It will be important to know “how they are feeling regarding consumers, demand, cost and expense increases, and their perspective regarding the macroeconomic environment,” said Mendoza in an interview.

What can we expect from Mexican companies in Q3?

These are the issues that will be the focus of the third quarter quarterly reports, according to the Actinver and Monex analysts.

  • According to Brian Rodríguez of Monex, the third quarter will not yet reflect any major effects linked to a potential recession.
  • The focus will be on profitability. It is possible to see less pressure compared to the second quarter due to the stability of some raw materials. “We should see a better quarter,” said Actinver’s Mendoza.
  • Mexican companies could register a defensive earnings environment, a performance detached from what could happen in the US.
  • In the case of companies with dollarized revenues, they will enjoy a favorable exchange rate environment. Due to the stability of the exchange rate, no major exchange losses are expected.
  • Another focus will be on the effect of higher interest rates on the financial cost of companies.

Mexican Companies’ 3Q Reports Calendar:

October 18

  • América Móvil
  • Grupo Kuo
  • Nemak

October 19

  • Gruma

October 20

  • Alfa
  • Alpek
  • Axtel
  • Grupo Financiero Banorte
  • Kimberly Clark de México
  • Walmart de México

October 24

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  • Volaris

October 25

  • GCC

October 26

  • Arca Continental
  • Banco del Bajío
  • Gentera
  • Grupo La Comer
  • Vista Oil & Gas

October 27

  • Cemex
  • Grupo Bimbo

October 28

  • Becle
  • Industrias Peñoles (tentative)