OPEC Predicts Lower Oil Output in Mexico in 2023

The decline will be around 40,000 barrels per day, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (center) and the CEO of Pemex Octavio Romero Oropeza (left) visit the Xikin offshore field.
October 13, 2022 | 11:10 AM

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Mexico City — Oil production in Mexico will fall 2%, or by 40,000 barrels per day, during 2023, due to the decline of mature fields operated by state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

“The main growth drivers [of oil production] for 2023 are expected to be the United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while oil production declines will come from Russia and Mexico,” OPEC said in its most recent monthly report.

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OPEC predicted that Mexico’s 2023 production will be up to 1.96 million barrels per day following a decline in the last quarter of next year.

“The decline in Pemex’s total crude oil production in mature fields is expected to outpace increases in other fields,” OPEC said.


Crude oil production in the country has remained broadly unchanged month-over-month, averaging 1.6 million per day in August, while gas condensate production increased slightly, by 9,000 barrels per day, from its onshore fields.

Bloomberg Línea consulted the Energy Ministry regarding the OPEC forecasts but has yet to receive a response.

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President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s energy policy is focused on the reactivation of Pemex in order to raise oil production and refine all crude oil in the country in order to achieve self-sufficiency in gasoline and diesel, but high oil prices -which have oscillated at around $100 per barrel- have diluted the Mexican government’s objective.


OPEC’s estimates that by the end of 2022 Mexico’s liquid hydrocarbon production will be two million barrels per day.

The increase in 2022 will be driven by fields operated by foreign companies, with lower growth in fields operated by Pemex.

“There is upside potential for the fourth quarter 2022 forecast due to maintenance at the Ku-Maloob-Zaap asset, as Pemex has not yet confirmed the maintenance plan for this year,” OPEC added.

The figure estimated by OPEC, based on data from Pemex, contemplates the production of oil and condensates, including those recovered from gas transportation, in addition to the barrels delivered by its private partners.

The interim president of the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), Alma América Porres Luna, said Thursday that Mexico will not achieve the goal of two million barrels per day by the end of López Obrador’s six-year term in 2024, according to the regulator’s most recent estimates.

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